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Gohan blog post

Our of curiousity, I decided to compile these lists....

by Gohan, May/27/2020

So, I decided to look at mortality rates for countries that did and didn't lockdown. Obviously, there's more to it than mortality rates, but the idea that lockdowns save lives looks a little... uncertain?

Using this site, I compiled a list of mortality rates among countries that did and did not lockdown.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

No lockdown:

Belarus: 0.5%
Guinea: 0.6%
Zambia: 0.8%
Ethiopia: 0.9%
Benin: 1.4%
Tajikistan: 1.4%
Taiwan: 1.6%
Latvia: 2.1%
South Korea: 2.4%
Kenya: 3.9%
Malawi: 4.0%
Tanzania: 4.1%
Egypt: 4.2%
Nicaragua: 4.6%
Japan: 5.1%
Sierra-Leone: 5.8%
Brazil: 6.3%
Sweden: 12%
Yemen: 19.7%

Did lockdown: (too many countries to list all)

Kazakhstan: 0.4%
Oman: 0.5%
Chile: 1.0%
Thailand: 1.9%
Turkey: 2.8%
Peru: 2.9%
India: 2.9%
Ukraine: 3.0%
Germany: 4.6%
Denmark: 4.9%
US: 5.9%
Philippines: 6.0%
Algeria: 7.1%
Canada: 7.7%
Ecuador: 8.6%
Liberia: 9.8%
Mexico: 10.9%
Bahamas: 11%
Spain: 11.5%
Antigua/Barbuda: 12%
Netherlands: 12.8%
Hungary: 13.2%
UK: 13.9%
Italy: 14.3%
France: 15.6%
Belgium: 16.2%

Hmm, makes you wonder... more countries in the second category, but not all that much difference if we're only looking at death rates though the no lockdown list seems to have a lower average.

We don't have the data on morbidities, but it seems that there are cases of permanent, long term damage for some people particularly to the lungs and kidneys. The pre-existing conditions that increase severe symptoms and death are all totally preventable; hypertension, heart disease, insulin resistance/diabetes, obesity etc... I hope we can at least see that we need to take better care of ourselves and stop eating so much of a junk diet and living a poor lifestyle.

Comments [?]

By Gohan, May/27/2020

The rate of spread should be affected by lockdown and the rate of spread affects the number of cases and therefore deaths. Of course it would be affected by lockdown if one of the goals was to reduce spread and cases.

The stat is one way to measure the burden of covid on a country which it says right in the first sentence. If lockdown is intended to lower the burden of the disease on a country and it isn't, then why are we doing it? Going by that data, it hasn't reduced it much or at all when compared to countries that did.

Of course, I don't really believe we have accurate data anywhere especially with the rate of spread being so high. The actual number of cases is probably a lot higher than the known number of cases, but be that as it may, what we have is what we have.

By Gohan, May/27/2020

If no lockdown causes the health care system to become overwhelmed, it absolutely would affect the mortality rate. Preventing that from happening was a major reason why we locked down in the first place.

Stay home, save lives. Flatten the curve, save lives. If countries with no lockdowns caused their health care systems to be overwhelmed as a result of the higher rate of spread, then countries with no lockdown would show much higher mortality rates on average than countries that did lockdown.

This is pretty far from "irrelevant, non-correlation" and I would appreciate it if we could discuss this without the condescension.

By AmericanHeart, Jun/03/2020

From my understanding, with the lockdowns, it makes it worse because if one individual living in a house and is affected or positive with COVID, then the rest of the people living in same house are affected and I have seen the pattern: family in same house or at nursing home because the seniors or disabled are easily spread there and the staff go room to room or apartment to apartment for giving them meds or needs. Lockdowns DO makes it worse. I have a friend whose son is going to Sweden to study in university there and checked about the lockdowns. There are no lockdowns and they are much lower than the US. It is all about politics and power grab. This is why we have riots and protests now (It is not always about that cop did to the man. It is about everything).

By Gohan, Jun/03/2020

I've been talking about this stuff a lot lately with folks and it does seem to be about more than Floyd. It was just the thing that set it off in the US. Protests and riots were going on all over the world last year before all this happened. People in Europe are protesting again too. Montreal and Toronto were as well. London, Paris, Copenhagen I think... this was a lot of things building up. Now that people have lost their jobs and livelihoods ruined, it's all coming out.

Lockdowns were instituted too late after community spread already occurred which, as you said, just makes it spread faster. We took all these asymptomatic carriers and shut them indoors with their families. Lockdown should have happened sooner to be effective. Nursing homes were the source of the majority of deaths. This is hitting elderly people hard, but not so bad on everyone else.

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